> Because the Kremlin wants europe to take an overt action to justify mobilization.

Do they? Why? They're already in a stalemate of a conflict, why would they want more fully-mobilized enemies?

I think it's to slowly increase offenses _that won't lead to military response_. The response to each individual incident, worse than the one before, kinetic action can be delayed because "this was only a little worse than the last one".

This compounds because NATO needs to act collectively to effectively act militarily (maybe Poland could go it alone).