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NitpickLawyertoday at 11:47 AM2 repliesview on HN

> By the finale, Kalshi’s “Survivor” market had reached a volume of $32.7 million

I don't get this. How are people "betting" on something that is "known information" for other people? What's the point? I get betting on stuff that no one can know, but who's taking "the other side" on these bets? Why would you put money into something knowing that there are people who already have the absolute answer?


Replies

jihadjihadtoday at 12:01 PM

> Why would you put money into something knowing that there are people who already have the absolute answer?

https://youtu.be/Hm3mDatFpNE?is=vKkBJs6XsypuD833

echelontoday at 12:02 PM

That's exactly what "prediction markets" sell themselves as. Super-predictors.

Insiders have an edge and can in theory shape the overall distribution of bets such that the real world outcomes are priced in better.

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