Despite the fact that I'm not culturally or geographically connected to them at all and have some differences in taste and aesthetic, I have to conclude that this crowd, including him and Gwern etc. have been much better at understanding and predicting things than the expert takes you find in the media. That includes AI but also things like covid and others.

I’m not seeing anything like a falsifiable prediction that LLMs will write math proofs in that article.

I see a thought experiment about giving GPT-2 “near-infinite training data and [compute]” but that’s not falsifiable. That’s also not how we got to modern GPT models.