alt Hacker Newshttps://arstechnica.com/space/2026/09/there-are-now-17000-sa... "It does indeed start to look pretty dicey by mid-century."
The report itself https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/ESA_Space_Envi...
About pricing: https://www.satellitetoday.com/launch/2026/09/17/the-era-of-...
Replies
brandonagr2 • last Friday at 9:16 PM
If the report is predicting 100 years in the future, are we really "to the brink" now? Not to mention the decay time of these LEO is in months, hardly a kessler syndrome scenario.
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Phillips said "Starlink has pushed LEO to the brink of Kessler syndrome."[0]
This is an ESA collision rate prediction, based on... something. It has no known connection to Starlink. Are the assumptions in the ESA paper representative of Starlink (altitude, disposal, collision avoidance system, etc)? Who knows!
[0] https://www.spaceweather.com/starlink/starlink_drag_explaine...