alt Hacker NewsFeb 2000: Record orders for chip gear push SEMI index to four-year high
https://www.eetimes.com/record-orders-for-chip-gear-push-sem...
> Capital equipment suppliers have been increasing their forecasts for revenue growth in 2000 as chip manufacturers begin to add new wafer fabs and backend assembly plants. Last week, for example, Applied Materials Inc.–the world's largest semiconductor equipment supplier–announced it had increased its forecast for industry growth in wafer fab equipment sales to 46% from a projection of 19% at the end of last year (see Feb. 16 story).
> The strong wave of new orders “confirms the strength of the current market cycle,” said Stanley T. Myers, president of SEMI.
This time it's different.
Replies
So you are saying, just like the Internet, there may or may not be a painful AI burst in a few years, then exponential grow in decades to come? What is the time window to fit your narrative?
You do realize the same was true every year leading up to 2000.
The peak is always before the fall by definition.
Just because something has peaked SO FAR is a very poor approximation that it has peaked completely.
This time we're building AGI, so yes, this time is different.
I like the dot com bubble comparisons mainly so that I can look at the differences. That is where the information is, and it's what you want if you're going to navigate this market.