alt Hacker NewsSo you are saying, just like the Internet, there may or may not be a painful AI burst in a few years, then exponential grow in decades to come? What is the time window to fit your narrative?
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Yeah I always find dot com burst comparison apt because like, yeah market corrections will probably happen, but even if you invested in big tech RIGHT before the burst you would probably still be very rich today if you just held.
One problem for internet vs AI is the internet boom laid down a bunch of fiber, which has a usable life of decades. The AI boom is 10% datacenter, 90% GPU, and the GPUs are consumables on a timeline of ~3-5 years, and even that's being optimistic compared to rumored real-world degradation rates. 2000 put a couple trillion in the ground that we got to dig up later, 2026 is setting a couple trillion on fire.
An investment in the S&P 500 at the heights of 2000 would not materially exceed its basis until 2013!
An Nasdaq would not materially exceed until 2016.
Yes, this ignores dividends, but that really only helps manage inflation.
You would have done much better being out of the stock market until the 2009 crash.