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bunderbunder • yesterday at 7:13 PM • 3 replies • view on HN

This is just run-of-the-mill rent seeking behavior.

A huge chunk of their revenue comes from US-based enterprise customers. Earlier this year, in an effort to become profitable, they tried raising their rates. Those enterprise customers responded, in part, by ramping up efforts to migrate to open weight models. If those efforts are successful then OpenAI and Anthropic will lose their one remaining plausible path to profitability. The US banning open weight models arguably keeps that path open. I don't personally buy that story, but I do believe hedge funds and institutional investors would. That could be all that's needed for a successful IPO.

As for cybersecurity implications, long term impact on domestic AI industry or the US tech industry more broadly, geopolitics, etc., I don't think OpenAI's or Anthropic's leaders are any more worried about that than your average termite is about the structural integrity of the house it's eating.


Replies

xorcist • yesterday at 8:15 PM

> OpenAI and Anthropic will lose their one remaining plausible path to profitability

You forgot about Ads. The one true endgame for every tech company.

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djierardi • yesterday at 8:24 PM

This assumes that everyone doesn't reach "good enough" at some point. The best developed area here -- software -- seems to suggest a "good enough" plateau, if not an absolute plateau.

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mopsi • yesterday at 8:00 PM

  > The US banning open weight models arguably keeps that path open. 
Difficult to see how that could be implemented in practice. Ok, let's imagine only Anthropic and OpenAI hold a US government license to provide AI services in the US. But what would stop US companies from sending the data overseas for processing? Locking that down would require a huge paradigm shift, given how fast and loose they currently are with their (and especially customers') data.
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