alt Hacker News> "Predicted hyperinflation"
The Fed has been trying to hit its 2% inflation target (which is arguably unrealistic as the neutral rate but that's another topic) for half a decade and can't hit it. I suppose the question is: What do you consider hyperinflation objectively?
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/oct/is-us-abo...
Due to structural demographics and other factors (exhausting institutional buyers of sovereign debt no longer required to buy and hold it at below market pricing, and sovereigns now having to go sell debt into a price sensitive debt market), we've gone from a capital surplus to a capital shortage, and this will likely continue long into the future due to demographics (working age population shrinks, wages get pushed up, and a whole lot of debt that needs to get refinanced at current and forward curve interest rates [real estate, private equity, sovereign debt, etc]).
https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-s...
If you can forecast the cost of money curve, you can forecast "who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out" based on their debt load and future cost of debt, and therefore when the economics turn against what the fundamentals can support.
https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/
https://buffett.cnbc.com/video/1994/04/25/buffett-you-dont-f...
Replies
> What do you consider hyperinflation objectively?
I remember definitions of monthly inflation rate exceeding 10%. Wikipedia has monthly inflation rate exceeding 50%.
Either way, far higher than USA currently has.
I'd say over 30% monthly for at least 3 months or over 8% monthly over two years are good targets to call something hyperinflation. Different kind of hyperinflation have different causes and resolve very differently.
2% yoy inflation when assets grow 10% yoy mean reducing the purchasing power of work. Inflation target should be around asset growth if you choose to tax income rather than wealth.