alt Hacker NewsI’ve discussed with many people at work, all engineers, they’re weirdly oblivious. Most are shocked when I say things like OpenAI and Anthropic are gonna crater.
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The complete opposite is the generally held perspective among engineers where I work. It’s the management that think they’re not going to crater.
Not sure about Anthropic, unless they continue to fall over themselves in ego. They have strong GTM in my take.
Google is a bit oblivious (though is probably the smarter money based on diversification alone IMHO). OpenAI has folks wondering just how publicly Mr. Altman can blunder his wording before he gets ousted (today was along the lines of "you will own nothing" with his take that personal RAM ownership being an affront to efficiency).
All three are trying to convince enterprise buyers that central tokenmaxxing is the best thing since sliced bread; many of the circles I run in occasionally have huge (emphasis: huge in the 2010s ZIRP sense) buyers that are begging for more edge AI.
People have a hard time detaching the tech from the business. That a successful and revolutionary tech paradigm isn't necessarily very profitable. I think these LLMs are fantastic but they're race to the bottom commodities that are terrible from a profit standpoint and they're expensive to run with high capex requirements.
I talk to our risk lead and he was also weirdly oblivious as well. The whole company is dependent on them not going down the shitter. Surely that's a tangible risk?
I'm indifferent either way myself. It's just shocking the amount of ignorance.
It's the cryptobro craze but for AI. It's tiresome, I don't have AI fatigue, I love using Claude, I have aibro fatigue. I'll lump in the people all in on AI, and that includes anyone who hates it vehemently because they just have to sour conversations.
1929 all over again.
The model employee must live (or pretend to) inside the company's information bubble.
Words are cheap. Put your money and short Anthropic (when it IPOs) if you are convinced it will crater.
There’s a notable difference between saying those companies may crater, and predicting confidently that they will crater. The wording of your comment makes it seem like a foregone conclusion.