alt Hacker NewsThat’s not what prediction markets give you though. They give you capital-adjusted, human perception-based odds of future events. You aren’t “seeing the probably of future events”.
That’s not what prediction markets give you though. They give you capital-adjusted, human perception-based odds of future events. You aren’t “seeing the probably of future events”.
> An event predicted to happen p% of the time happens about p% of the time. Can’t beat that.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/pr...