alt Hacker NewsAnthropic IPO valuation talks drop to $1.3T
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Some benchmarks to compare:
Apple: 5 T
Google: 3.5 T
Meta: 1.55 T
Microsoft: 3.97 T
Berkshire Hathaway: 1.2 T
Eli Lilly: 1.28 T
Tesla: 1.38 T
Walmart: 1 T
Spotify: 125 billion
can someone explain to me the point of the 'initial valuation', considering ultimately the price will settle lated thorugh trading to perceived value anyway ?
Please explain to me why my "naive and maybe ignorant" understanding of this is wrong... The bigger the IPO price, the more they earn and the more probability is for you to loose money invested in it.
So say Anthropic, or OpenAi, or smartGummyBearsAI go IPO and the price is insanely high... and then spirals down to be 10% of the real price... they earn a lot of money and the public loose a lot of money.
IF smartGummyBearsAI goes 100% realistic price and you buy near the correct price, they earn their fair money and people get an investment.
IF smartGummyBearsAI says that they have technology to use the same machine that makes gummy bears print gpus and they are priced 10,000x their actual price the society just transfers a lot of wealth to them and they scam the society.
Why shouldn't we regulate and aim for the correct price?
Remember 801k money is what we are talking about
It’s going to drop further, probably well below $1T. Still a multibillion dollar valuation though imo.
Their numbers are shit. They are brittle af. Any shift in political climate results in internal mayhem.
Same with openai
Good drop. Should be less than a trillion amid current midterm fallout. The chances of more AI regulations are coming.
Colossus 1 & Colossus 2 are located on Tennessee and Mississippi, and Anthropic rents both of them earlier this year.
Now that Democrats are surely going after Trump and Elon Musk and the sidekicks, and both Tennessee and Mississippi turned blue as well, this directly impacts the way Anthropic to source cheap compute and data in the future due to uncertainty around the continuation of SpaceX data centers. And other data center buildouts are likely to be paused for things like power grid connection and environmental impacts and land purpose evaluation, the compute capacity constraints are likely going south, too.
Worse, the proposals around superintelligence is exactly what Anthropic is looking for: slow the fuck down. Now they got the killshot they long desired for, it obviously makes a dent in the capability and capacity of their AI, hence a drop in valuation. I think $800-900B is somewhere I would say okay, and $600-700B is really where it is fair, considering the long term outlook for Anthropic is looming with a greater AI massacre caused by political factors.
literally what is the upside? They're supposedly worth as much as meta despite having nowhere near the customer base or years of work? How much more valuation do they have to trick people into giving them before investors get a return?
that's low enough Musky could just buy it out right, jeez.
People seem unnecessarily deluded here in a supposed hacker forum. If they are really created actual digital intelligence smarter than every human and figure it out how to control it, then 1T dollars means this is the most undervalued business in the entire world. Maybe by 100x or 1000x. You have billions of super genius slaves in data centers that do whatever you want, then if a single human developer can earn $100k/year pessimisticly let alone a super genius one. Multiply that by a billion and do the math at 80% gross margins
Perhaps $50B would be a fair valuation to aim for?
Imagine that - 50 (fifty) times more than an average unicorn start-up!
Something they could be very proud of, and many if not all employees would become multi-hundred-thousandaires practically overnight!
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Looking at the S-1 lockup schedule the IPO seems doomed. They need to bring in a ton of investment, and you will have massive unlocks right as the next congress is most active authoring anti-AI bills. Who's going to buy this?