Fossil CO2 emissions decrease by 0.4% in 2026

Emissions budgets are calculated using accounting best practice, which are not designed for full transparency (ref: the creative accounting used to obscure every financial scandal and economic bubble). THIS is the curve that matters:

https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/global.html

The Iran blip is clearly seen, but it's just that - a blip. Levels continue to steadily rise.

The headline buries the lede.

"With emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) projected to increase slightly this year, total CO2 emissions are projected to be 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026 – up from 42.8 billion tonnes last year."

Total annual CO2 emissions are projected to increase by ~half a billion tonnes as a result of land use changes.

What's interesting in the numbers is that despite the relative political philosophy and fanfare, on a % basis.. the US reduced emissions about the same as the EU and both reduced them more than China.

This is good, but also total emissions still expected to increase? Yeesh

One of the things that COVID make crystal clear to me is that radical changes for the better are much more straightforward than people think, and the only reason they don't happen is the people in charge couldn't be bothered.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/chinas...

There is no excuse for every government in the world to not be covering every bit of rooftop or scrap land with solar. China is losing money on panels at the moment they have such production capacity. Its free money for anyone country who wants to do it.

Say what you like but this is great news. Let’s keep going.

Let's hope it's not just a temporary dip, I'm not holding my breath but we could really do with some longer term good news at the moment.

0.4% sounds like one solid volcano eruption and all that effort is gone.

Pretty ironic that part of this is due to Trump: reducing global trade with tariffs, blocking Ormuz...

If we are just leveling off that’s a cause for celebration.

I realize anything other than doom wallowing is verboten on the Internet but it is a massive achievement, especially since global economic growth continues which means we are actually switching (renewables, nuclear, EVs) and decoupling (less energy per $ gdp).

Now for the other side of the curve!

Perhaps Trump was the dark knight of climate change activism all along?

Now: Let's skip the AI build out and keep things in the right direction.

When Ukraine burns a Russian refinery, do those emissions get counted?

Same with burning tankers in Iran...