I have approx. 15 years of experience working remotely for various companies all across the globe and was always an advocate of thesis that remote work is difficult and most people aren’t cut for it and (to horror of many proponents) and on average are less efficient than on-site hires.
There are many reasons: It’s difficult to understand _intention_ when deprived of non-verbal communication and working in a choppy network call. Even if one can gloss over communication needs etc. there’s burnout looming around the corner and natural, healthy laziness getting into the way. Sometimes even internal politics might be blocking knowledge/access/contribution for more or less peculiar reasons.
It’s not like it’s impossible to hire remote engineer, yet my (completely unmetered) estimates out of experience is that approx. 10% of engineers willing to work remotely can sustain health (physical and mental) and be efficient outside of 1-2 years of honeymoon period.
There was some tumbling around COVID but IMO both stationary jobs and remote ones are doing well on mid-high quality positions.
From experience I think your 10% feels overly pessimistic. 30-40% feels more accurate, just like only about the same % that can survive an open plan or cubicle floor.
I see lots of people thriving in remote. Main reasons being a huge increase in quality of life. Regaining 2-3 hours of senseless commuting time per day, getting small household chores done over lunch, not having to schedule repair and maintainance appointments in the weekends etc. is huge.
Now I do agree it is not for everyone. I see especially younger people living alone not coping to well. Part of the reason is they (ab)used the office as a socializing place, and are not used to organizing a personal social life outside work. There's also people that don't actually have much work outside of attending office meetings, and nobody thrives sitting in Teams calls all day.
Then there's also real downsides. Some people living in shoebox appartments in the city just do not have the space. W While work can be done (more?) efficiently remote, but carreer climbing needs in person contact. It's like dating. Real dinner or a video call? No comparison.
Best of both worlds would be 0 commute time to a luxurious private office inside the company premises. All the rest will be tradeoffs and compromises either way.
A lot of companies just suck at it too. "Here's Slack, figure it out" seems to be a common approach. In person you can pester the person next to you when you're new, overhear conversations, etc. but remote it is MUCH harder to ascertain the culture, Slack etiquette, etc (my favourite was "people write in Slack all the time, in public, even to themselves, it's your job to mute Slack when you need focus, and don't use DM's unless you really need the privacy"), but I have only seen this done very well in one place - Auth0 (pour one out :-( ) . Maybe because it started remote with founders thousands of KM apart.
If management is so poor that they can't communicate intention in writing, then I don't really see how being in office or anywhere for that matter will help. They're just flat out incompetent. I've seen the opposite of this as well, where whatever management clearly communicated is most definitely not what is going to get executed.
If internal politics are blocking knowledge, access, & contribution of any employee the correct action is not to hire them. If they are already hired, the correct action of management is to offer them severance.
My experience working in software startups is that the average retention period of an employee is 2 years, in any work environment. What you're calling the honeymoon period is effectively just the average retention of the industry anyways.
The idea of coming to office comes from the fact it was not practical for people to have computers and other devices at home. Now we have technology that this is no longer necessary, but of course commercial landlords and investors feel salty about it, so they lobby for this outdated now model to keep their investments artificially up.
When I have had 100% remote work jobs one think I have noticed that when I get into the "zone" and am being very productive having to go home doesn't interrupt it and I can keep being very productive for many more hours. Then I can slack off the next day if I want to.
I have nearly 3 decades (ugh…) now of forming fully remote startups and working remotely.
It used to be totally non-controversial and completely validated by direct personal experience that only a minority of the population is built to work remotely. It’s so silly this is even an argument when our entire society and education is built on in-person interactions.
I think the 10% number is variable depending on the org you are hiring into. A company that was never built to be remote or put any thought into how information and communication systems must be different than office? 10% may even be high. A company built from first principles with lots of thought and intentional design behind business processes being remote only? Probably much too low. It will be reflected even in the types of personalities being hired on average.
If you reach for video calls as a solution to your remote companies communication issues you have completely failed and probably would be better served with fully on-premise. This would be the first question I would ask as an interviewee for a remote role. Any company regularly engaging or encouraging this means leadership is simply trying in the worst possible way to recreate an office environment and thus you can expect nearly everything else process based to be horribly broken for a remote company. I have some other “tells” as well, but this one stands out as the simplest as it displays a total disconnect with the reality of how to build remote teams. If you can’t function like a well ran open source project you are almost assuredly doing it wrong.