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ericmayyesterday at 2:04 AM9 repliesview on HN

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throwaway27448yesterday at 2:35 AM

> Gulf States themselves will go to war over it because they sure as hell aren’t paying Iran so that they can sell oil on the free market.

Is this not the war they're currently losing? the US is their military.

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jrmgyesterday at 2:26 AM

Freedom of navigation is a core global principal

Like not attacking civilian infrastructure?

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Cyph0nyesterday at 2:18 AM

> Freedom of navigation is a core global principal

And Iran has been respecting that principle for decades. So why exactly did the US and Israel (and GCC countries) think that the status quo would remain even if they keep antagonizing Iran? Imagine getting bombed during negotiations - not once, but twice in a single year! Their sovereignty was being disrespected, so now they're understandably establishing a new status quo.

And btw, if Iran and Oman cooperate, there is no threat to "freedom of navigation" under international law.

In a nutshell: play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

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oa335yesterday at 2:32 AM

> Freedom of navigation is a core global principal and Iran has no legitimate right to stop other countries from trade.

The US is stopping other countries from trading with Cuba and Iran. The US doesn’t have the “right” to do that, but it doesn’t need the “right”. It only needs power.

Iran has power over the Hormuz and is exerting it for what it deems is in its interest.

> Gulf States themselves will go to war over it

Maybe? But I doubt it - $1 per barrel amounts to like 1-2% of the price of oil. They may not like it but it’s not going to affect their bottom line nearly as much as closing the strait for 1 week will. A war with Iran would mean utter destruction of all oil infrastructure in the region, so probably better to pay 2% to avoid that.

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selfmodruntimeyesterday at 9:42 AM

Gulf states have no ability to go to war. As this war has shown, the states are entirely dependent on oil and desalination plants, both of which are easily attackable infrastructure.

ignoramousyesterday at 2:13 AM

> Freedom of navigation is a core global principal

Unlike Bosporus & Suez (similar choke points in the region), there's no international arrangement for the Hormuz bottleneck, nor has Iran ratified UNCLOS ("Convention on the Law of the Sea").

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UncleOxidantyesterday at 2:33 AM

> I wouldn’t worry about that lol. Gulf States themselves will go to war over it because they sure as hell aren’t paying Iran so that they can sell oil on the free market.

And yet they haven't gone to war (or joined in the war) to open up the SoH so far.

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ratraceyesterday at 2:59 AM

[dead]

smallmancontrovyesterday at 2:07 AM

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