Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries

huh, yesterday I vibe coded a similar tool. It lets me set my current savings, investment, retirement. Expected yearly savings, expected number of years of work left. After retirement, only withdrawals are allowed (investments, savings still get returns tho)

Codex suggested a bunch of improvements: monte carlo, investment volatility, expense inflation, capital gains tax etc. One thing codex didn't ask about was social security. So that's another factor that could be improved.

I wanted to know 'do I really need to work 30 more years?'

What would be really interesting is discovering an attainable formula where my investments outpace my expenses. Or, what variables let me die with basically $0 in the bank

At the end, I realized I had no idea what the calculator was REALLY doing. So it could be right... it could be really wrong too. Having historical data might help solve those issues

It's really nice to see a simulator that removes the home country bias. So many of these types of simulations use American data. But that's pretty extreme cherry-picking: America has had a pretty exceptional run these last 100+ years. Any retirement simulator cannot assume that America's exceptional growth will continue. Maybe it will, but you cannot plan on a maybe.

Better be safe I guess:

Foresight Planner is not yet available in your region. We're launching in Canada (excluding Quebec) first. We don't yet support Quebec, because we don't yet offer the product in French. If you'd like us to let you know when we expand, email [email protected].

Foresight Planner n'est pas encore disponible dans votre région. Nous lançons d'abord au Canada (hors Québec). Pour être informé·e de l'élargissement de notre service, écrivez à [email protected].

Region: CA-QC

This doesn't know the important part. Will I live to 62 as the earliest of my ancestors died, or 98 as the latest? My family history is about average for lifespan but that is a big difference. If I live to 62 I should retire at 50 - or perhaps I shouldn't have bothered saving at all since the growth isn't there. Of medical advances make me love to 150 I should save until I'm 80 which will be a nice income to really enjoy the rest of my life.

I want more defined benefit accounts, but they are hard to find

I didn't want to put in my email address in order to access the detailed calculator... The quick check doesn't have nearly enough information to give anyone an idea of what actually to expect...

Why not let people try it from abroad? Not in the USA? No luck. Why does the withdrawal rate need to be a multiple of 0.5%? It's curious that the highest chance was associated with the highest (100%) stock ratio.

I got 82.4% regardless of whether I started with a portfolio value of $1M or $3M.

Something is wrong with the calculations/simulations.

If I can't trust the Quick Check, why would I trust anything else on the site?

So its a monte carlo simulation but I can't enter growth rate country time horizons or anything like that?

Why do I need to sign into everything these days? The moment I see that I close the site.

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