alt Hacker NewsMicron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026
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doesn't seem unlikely, i'd probably ask someone who won't massively benefit from people believing that it will be tighter though
I have huge hopes fox CXMT entering the market and at least offsetting this nightmare. Just this week i've paid ~$1k USD for 2x32G DDR5 ECC, insane.
Shovel seller says shovels will be expensive in winter so make sure to buy as many as you can today.
remind me in a few years when the same CEO is writing long post on Linkedin explaining why they need to let go half of the company.
As an end user it’s difficult to not be bitter about the situation, particularly when you have execs coming out and saying, “yep these prices sure are terrible, better buy now before they get even worse!”
I’ve seen people say, “well that’s just the free market, there’s a customer that’s willing to pay more than you,” but that argument doesn’t hold water when industry incumbents are actively obstructing entrance of new competitors into their primary markets. Micron, etc can’t both refuse to carve off more of their capacity for consumer-destined NAND and also refuse to allow others to fill the vacuum they’ve so conveniently created. Either you’re serving the market or you’re not; you don’t get to have your cake and eat it too under properly functioning, healthy capitalism.
It'd be a shame if their two main sources of income (openai and anthropic) were to go bust...
I look forward to memory optimizations in software design.
I thought that the bulk of memory is already "technically bought" by the AI hyperscalers in the form of the big (not so) "hidden" debt? As in: the supply should already be known.
Why the need for speculation?
Not good. Prices are never going down
If you follow the money though much of this future “demand” is on fulling orders from the AI labs and at the moment the AI labs don’t have the cash to pay that bill. A rather important detail in this whole mix.
So either the labs need to start printing money, now, or there’s going to be a whole bunch of excess chips hitting the market in 2027-28.
Someone in the middle is going to get left taking delivery of all these chips but unable to collect payment for them. And someone else is going to get left holding the bag on data center loans to house those chips. That’s the storm ahead.
CXMT is coming for this market, and this creates a huge opening for it.
So instead of consumer's not being able to buy memory, consumers won't be able to buy memory?
and here I hoped to suspect that my DRAM prices were all fake news run by my MITM ... goood, damn it
this would be the time to revive and evolve some of that Made In Germany Engineering ...
Obviously, because they are making a killing.
One factor constraining supply for RAM in the short-to-medium term is that memory manufacturers is that DDR5 (and assumedly DDR6) capacity is being moved to the much more profitable HBM.
I think supply will be tight until at least the AI market crashes, which could take years or happen within months. Nobody can really predict when this will happen but it's fairly clear (IMHO) that the revenue projections needed to justify the investments by OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX simply don't exist.
Without the AI boom, the economy is in recession and has been for awhile. We're in an affordability crisis and the energy crunch is coming.
No one will use AI products if there won't be consumer products because of RAM shortage.
Man whose compensation package is strongly tied to the economic performance of his company says company's economic performance will be great in 2027 and 2028 (so people should invest now to benefit from that bump)
Gonna be crazy to watch this bubble pop.
Sounds like the gov needs to spin up another “Project Warp Speed” like they did during covid.
They are milking the market now.
Make no mistake here: they also plan to retain these high prices. It's like the mafia now. There should be instant-jail time to cure these CEOs of their greed. Like, go to prison for a week, to help refresh your mind and stop thinking in terms of milking the customers dry.
In the short term, what `Neil44` mentioned "Yeah he doesn't want people delaying purchasing decisions" makes sense.
In the long term, the big comapnies are pushign to have consumers to adopt "terminals" back in old days.
- we use crappy devices, while cloud got beefy machines.
I'm not a business guy, but I think I would be very worried if I created any opening (even on the very long term) for competition to justify itself being built up to meet demand (or national security requirements of other countries) on an industry I mostly control, because I prioritized extremely high prices for a few years that might have the effect of changing the arithmetic for potential competitors that wouldn't have done it before.
It makes me consider whether there would be retaliation in later years against the US intellectual property system in countries other than China. While RAM is a tangible product, the areas it serves aren't really.